Alevo’s Political Predictions

Current prediction record: 1.5-0

April 21, 2005

Situation: Sponsorship scandal rages, Liberals at all-time low support and governing as a minority.
Alevo’s Prediction: There will not be a spring election.
Crystal balls or established wisdom: crystal balls to the wall on this one. Most pundits predict a spring election.
Right or wrong: Right. There was no spring election.

September 23, 2005
Situation: Massive hurricane Katrina has hit, Rita’s on the way. Gas prices soaring. Conservatives lagging in the polls, Harper under fire. Softwood lumber issues irritate Can-US relations. Martin has promised an election after the upcoming Gomery report.

Alevo’s Prediction #1: Libs will kick Harper while he’s down and attempt to defend their record as strong fiscal managers in the process.
Crystal balls or established wisdom: established wisdom. Why wouldn’t they do so?

Alevo’s Prediction #2: the Liberal government will have a major announcement in the works to push the Gomery report off the media’s radar when it is released. This will likely be omnibus tax legislation that includes corporate tax cuts & gas tax relief.
Crystal balls or established wisdom: single crystal ball with specificity bonus = crystal balls. Seems logical, but this prediction is precise and could easily be wrong.
Right or wrong: So far, half-right. October 7, 2005, Goodale tables $2.4B energy relief package. Corporate tax cuts not yet announced.

Alevo’s Prediction #3: in spite of grumblings from Harper, the Liberal strategy will succeed and there will be no fall election. Instead, the election will be delayed until late winter or early fall of 2006.
Crystal balls or established wisdom: single crystal ball.