Election 2006

From today’s Globe and Mail:

Liberals snatching NDP votes in Ontario
New Democrats’ support level drops to single digits as Grits reach their highest mark since May, poll says
By MICHAEL DEN TANDT AND GLORIA GALLOWAY
Monday, December 12, 2005 Posted at 12:45 AM EST

Ottawa and Beamsville, Ont. — Prime Minister Paul Martin made a targeted campaign swing through Ontario’s southern heartland yesterday as a new poll showed Liberal support in the province surging to its highest point in weeks, mainly at the expense of the New Democrats.

A poll taken for The Globe and Mail and CTV on Wednesday, Thursday and Saturday showed nationwide support for the three national parties virtually unchanged, with the Liberals at 35 per cent, the Tories at 30 per cent and the NDP locked at 15 per cent.

“What you’ve got now is something that looks exactly like 2004,” said Allan Gregg, chairman of the Strategic Counsel, which carried out the poll.

“There’s a very high likelihood that this could be an incumbent race, where the only seats where you see significant movement are those where someone’s vacated,” he said.

That being said, a trend may be emerging in Ontario.

Mr. Martin’s Liberals now have the support of 40 per cent of the province’s voters, compared with 24 per cent for Stephen Harper’s Conservatives and nine per cent for Jack Layton’s New Democrats.

That’s the highest level of Liberal support since last May, marking a rise of 10 percentage points since the beginning of December.

Backing for the Tories is stable, whereas the number of those who say they would vote NDP has dropped from nearly 15 per cent in early December, into single digits.

“The NDP look like they’re getting caught in a bit of a squeeze overall,” Mr. Gregg said.

In the first week of the campaign, the Liberals lost ground to the New Democrats in the Greater Toronto Area, and to the Tories in the cluster of populous, mid-sized cities that make up the bulk of Ontario’s population outside Toronto.

Those losses appear to have been recouped, Mr. Gregg said.

“We had a count of about 15 seats the Liberals would be losing. This would suggest those seats are back in the Liberal fold.”

Mr. Gregg suggested two main reasons for the upturn in Liberal fortunes in Ontario. First, Mr. Harper’s proposal to cut the GST by one percentage point was largely neutralized by Mr. Martin’s promise to slash income taxes. Second, Liberal proposals on daycare appear to have found favour among female voters.

The NDP, meanwhile, is suffering from an anybody-but-Harper sentiment that’s emerging among left-of-centre voters, Mr. Gregg said. He credited some of that to Canadian Auto Workers president Buzz Hargrove, who has urged Canadians to only vote New Democrat in ridings the party has a shot at winning. The strategy of “driving those NDP supporters closer to the bosom of the Liberal Party” seems to be working, Mr. Gregg said.

Not surprisingly, Mr. Martin’s tour yesterday focused on the mid-sized Ontario cities thought to be the core battleground of the campaign in that province. He swung through Hamilton and the Niagara region, where at least five ridings are considered too close to call.

But even here, the emerging Liberal momentum was evident. Mr. Martin appeared confident enough in his party’s position in the area that, despite touring a winery and proclaiming the day to be “about small business,” he offered no new ideas or policies for improving that sector of the economy.

Instead, he talked about the country’s economic success, citing low unemployment rates, low inflation rates and the fact that Canada is the only major industrialized country to be paying down its debt.

“This is, without any shadow of a doubt, the result of a government which is, in fact, no longer crowding the private sector out of debt markets,” Mr. Martin said.

The Liberal approach of reassuring Canadians and Canadian business that the country is already is great shape contrasts with that of Stephen Harper and the Conservatives, who promised last week to raise the threshold for the small business tax rate from $300,000 to $400,000, and to reduce the small business tax rate from 12 per cent to 11 per cent over five years. The Tories would also offer help in hiring apprentices.

While no new small-business policy has been seen from the Liberals, local candidates hope voters in the Niagara region will credit Mr. Martin’s government for helping Stelco — the giant steel maker that is a major local employer — restructure to avoid bankruptcy.

“That issue has now just been taken off the table and I think a lot of pensioners and certainly a lot of employees can rest easy,” said Tony Valeri, the Liberal House Leader. In an effort to win re-election in Hamilton East- Stoney Creek, Mr. Valeri is up against New Democrat Wayne Marston, a well-known local leader.

The race is not expected to be as close as it was last year, when strong resentment lingered over the fact Mr. Valeri had defeated Hamilton-booster Sheila Copps for the Liberal nomination in the riding, but it is still not a sure thing.

The Liberals could also lose Hamilton Mountain, where retiring incumbent Beth Phinney squeaked to victory in 2004 against Chris Charlton of the NDP. Federal Liberal newcomer Bill Kelly faces Mr. Charlton this time. The Liberals will also need to work hard in St. Catharines in order to return Walt Lastewka to his seat against Tory Richard Dykstra and NDP candidate Jeff Burch.

On the other hand, in this highly volatile region, the Liberals also have hopes of defeating incumbent Conservatives in Niagara Falls (Rob Nicholson) and Niagara West Glanbrook (Dean Allison).

Niagara is just outside the vast 905 region of feeder communities surrounding Toronto, where many believe the election will be won or lost. It is expected that all of the parties will concentrate more resources here as voting day draws closer.